New Product Development
- TURF Analysis & Sales Data Analysis

TURF Analysis / SQL Database Management
Project Goal
The goal for this project is to provide recommendations of which flavor of greek yogurt we should launch next for a private label, with the existing Almond & Banana flavor.
We conducted three analyses :
1. Store sales data to understanding the current preference of yogurt customers.
2. Survey responses to calculate the frequency they would buy each flavor.
3. TURF analysis to calculate the reach a for each flavor :
How much percentage does the reach increases when adding in one more new flavor?
Data
1. Sales Data and Demographic Data for Loyalty Card Members from 5 datasets in SQL.
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2. Survey Response
We conducted a survey, discussing customer's preference for new flavors.
Project Overview

To recommend the next flavor we should launch, we explore the preference of the customers from three aspects.

1. Store sales percentage
2. Frequency
3. Reach 

Step One : Data wrangling
1. Date/ NA Management
2. Eliminate responses that took longer than 22.9 minutes.
Step Two :
Extract Sales Data from SQL
Merging tables from 5 databases, I extract three market share data tables.
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1. Regular yogurt
2. Greek yogurt
3. Brand

Sales Data Table Interpretation:
What is the best-seller flavor on the greek yogurt market?
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1. From the survey, we can observe that the most important attraction for greek yogurt is High Protein, Thickness, and Better Taste.
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Only 6% of the survey respondents are attracted to greek yogurt because of the flavors.
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2. From the store sales dataset, plain yogurt ranked first with 17% for greek yogurt buyers, but only 2% for regular yogurt buyers.
Step Three:
Demographic information
From SQL, I extracted the demographic information data for the survey respondents.

From the family size distribution bar chart, we can conclude that 30% of the survey respondents have two people in the family with no kids.
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However, about 70% of them have kids in the family, the flavor selection for the yogurt market may depend on the kid's preference.

The income is for the survey participants are distributed evenly, therefore, it may not affect the flavor selection too much.

Step Four:
TURF Analysis : Frequency
Which flavor is chosen more frequently?
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From the survey data, respondents choose whether they never, occasionally or regularly buy each flavor.
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We found out the frequency of buying each flavor is identical between family with kids and no kids.

The best ranking flavors are:
1. Blue Berry
2. Black Cherry
3. Peach
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Step five:
TURF Analysis - Reach
What is the total percentage of different people or households exposed to our product?

To estimate how much the market share will increase after introducing the new flavor, we calculate the reach for the market.

TURF Analysis - Reach
Interpretation:
We achieved 30% reach from the existing flavor- Almond and Banana.
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The company will increase its reach to 98% by introducing seven new flavors in the following order.
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Strawberry - Plain - Blueberry - Vanilla - Pineapple - Honey - Lemon



TURF Analysis - plot
From the reach bar plot, we can observe how much reach increases when adding one more flavor.
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After introducing the seventh flavor, Lemon, the reach bar remain the same.
Conclusion :
To recommend the next flavor we should launch, we explore the preference of the customers from three aspects.
1. Store sales percentage
2. Frequency
3. Reach 
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Combining the insights from the three analyses, we recommend the company to launch the following three flavors as their next new flavors.
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1. Strawberry
2. Plain
3. Blueberry
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These flavors can increase the reach to 92% and has 45% sale percentage in the stores.

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